This is issue #4 of Season 3. Find previous issues here.
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Nor Both nor Bold
— Do you think we should do A or B?
— Both
— Do you believe X is caused by Y or Z?
— Both
At this stage, my head is spinning:
Was my question stupid?
Was I not clear?
Is this a joke?
Do they even think they are answering the question?
Maybe they have two TVs in their living room and don’t have to choose between Sports and News channels. Perhaps they like to have fish and meat at the same time. Beer and wine. Water and Juice.
But I’m not asking for a life decision! I’m asking for an opinion! A harmless, no strings attached, no decisions at this point opinion.
The least they can do is say:
At this point is hard to tell - some evidence points us to A, others to B. But if we need to make a decision or prioritize, let me get more data to back that. Or if we agree that’s indiferent because their even, let’s go with… A.
And voilá! We have a decision!
And it is not a question of being bold! Making these kinds of decisions does not require courage. We’re not in the army, the jungle, or any life-threatening scenario. Leave your bravado or “macho man” outside, please.
If it’s both, if it’s indifferent, then just pick one, take the responsibility to choose, to make a decision.
It looks difficult, but it isn’t easy
Decision-making is a skill that sharpens with experience and builds into wisdom.
When making a decision, there are multiple inputs you need to consider. You also need to choose what output you want to prioritize. And then there’s the never-ending cognitive bias.
There are only two types of people:
The ones that think that making decisions is easy.
And others that know that decision-making is hard.
If you think it is easy, think again. You probably didn’t understand the problem. You're being naive or oversimplistic in your approach. Or, again, just being brave, bold!
Decision-making is a fascinating multi-disciplinary field that covers cognitive bias, mental models, probabilities and risk management and ethics. Again, it can get complex.
Type 1 and 2 Decisions
A simple heuristic is the one that became famous at Amazon. Be clear on what type of decision you’re making:
Is it a decision with a significant impact that is hard or impossible to revert? (Type 1)
or a decision that is easy to revert and with negligible impact (Type 2)
Type 1 decisions are complex, and you should take the time to consider, analyze, and request inputs and counsel so that you can make an informed and thoughtful decision. It can take days and even months to make them. But there are very few of those: an executive hire, an acquisition, marrying or having a kid.
Type 2 are the day-to-day decisions, both in life and at work. They are small and/or easily reversible. What movies to watch, the messaging on the homepage, the color of the shirt. You should make these decisions fast and often. The more and more quickly you decide, the quicker you will know how good it was. You accelerate the feedback loop, the learning and that spinning wheel is what will drive you forward.
So if most decisions are Type 2, small and reversible, just make them and fast. Don’t overthink, over analyse, over consider. Keep a decision-log and register why you took the decision so you can go back and learn from that process.
Stupid decisions
Charlie Munger, the famous partner of even more famous Warren Buffett, had an even simpler rule:
Avoid making stupid decisions.
This is some seriously clever advice. Munger says that if you want to do well in the long run, all you need to do is avoid making stupid decisions. You don't have to be a genius or come up with brilliant ideas, just steer clear of the dumb ones. So, don't take stupid decisions lightly! Do whatever it takes to avoid them and you'll be on the path to success:
listen to advise
seek diverse perspectives (not only ones that confirm your initial view)
gather more information
understand the effects of the decision
understand your emotions while making the decision
learn from past mistakes
This is a never-ending and fascinating topic that I will come back over and over again.
In the meantime, if you want to learn more here are 40 Books that Improve your Ability to Make Decisions (!!!)